The Fear of Becoming Too Dependent

DVZ: The share of respondents expecting an increasing outsourcing trend has risen from 49% to 61%. Is this a genuine turning point, or merely a cyclical effect driven by current economic conditions?

Dr. Klaus-Peter Jung: We have been asking ourselves the same question, as previous studies clearly pointed in a different direction. It remains to be seen whether this marks the beginning of a lasting trend reversal or simply reflects a temporary response to weak economic conditions, cost pressure, and other unfavorable market factors. My instinctive assessment is that it is primarily a cyclical effect.

DVZ: Despite optimism about growth, shippers remain largely dissatisfied with the results of logistics outsourcing, particularly regarding financial performance. How do you explain this apparent contradiction, and what fundamentally needs to change?

Dr. Klaus-Peter Jung: From our perspective, four factors are primarily responsible for the disappointing financial outcomes:

• Unrealistic expectations: Outsourcing does not transfer all responsibilities to the logistics service provider (LSP). The shipper always retains a certain level of management overhead to effectively steer and control the provider. This is often overlooked in business cases.
• Incomplete tender documentation: Not all processes and requirements are defined in sufficient detail during the tendering phase. As a result, operational realities frequently lead to deviations, change requests, and additional costs. 
• Indexation mechanisms: Today, virtually all pricing elements in outsourcing contracts are indexed. In contrast, under an in-house operating model, major cost components such as real estate or IT infrastructure are often not subject to comparable indexation. 
• Unmet expectations regarding continuous improvement: Many customers expect ongoing optimization initiatives that translate into measurable cost reductions. Only a limited number of LSPs consistently meet these expectations, for a variety of reasons. 

DVZ: Concerns about dependency on logistics service providers have increased further compared to previous studies. What practical measures would you recommend to mitigate this risk without sacrificing the benefits of outsourcing?

Dr. Klaus-Peter Jung: In several industries, we observe a strong trend toward split-responsibility models. In these setups, the customer retains ownership of assets such as facilities, equipment, and IT systems, while the LSP remains responsible for day-to-day operations.

This approach significantly reduces dependency on the service provider and is often more cost-effective for the shipper, as it avoids paying margins, risk premiums, and overhead markups on those assets. With proper financial engineering, it does not necessarily result in additional capital expenditure either.

That said, this model is generally feasible only in dedicated operations and not in multi-user warehouse environments. Furthermore, not all LSPs are willing to adopt such an arrangement.

DVZ: Digitalization and automation are making outsourcing decisions more complex. Are there scenarios in which technology could fundamentally challenge – or even render obsolete – the traditional outsourcing model?

Dr. Klaus-Peter Jung: In highly automated environments such as dark warehouses, that is certainly conceivable. However, as long as people continue to work in warehouses, outsourcing will still offer flexibility and cost advantages.

Nevertheless, it is true that as automation levels increase, the boundary between the shipper and the LSP gradually shifts back toward the shipper, as described above. We are already seeing this development across various industries and regions.

DVZ: To put it more directly: if a company has fully automated its logistics operations, does it still need an external service provider, or does the core rationale for outsourcing disappear?

Dr. Klaus-Peter Jung: Truly fully automated logistics operations are still in their infancy today. But yes, in such a scenario, companies would need to reconsider why they should outsource at all and what unique value proposition the LSP can offer.

It is conceivable that traditional logistics providers could, in some cases, be replaced by financial service providers that fund the required investments and offer them through pay-per-use models.

DVZ: Germany remains heavily focused on cost reduction, while regions such as LATAM place greater emphasis on growth and capacity expansion. What can German companies learn from international markets – and vice versa?

Dr. Klaus-Peter Jung: The strong cost focus currently observed in Germany is largely a reflection of today's weak economic environment. Looking back just two or three years, capacity constraints and cost variability were far more pressing concerns.

During the COVID period, warehouse capacity was extremely scarce, whereas many logistics providers are currently struggling with vacant space. We have observed these cyclical shifts for more than 30 years, although the swings now appear to be becoming more pronounced.

This reality must influence not only the asset strategies of both shippers and logistics providers, but also contract structures, automation approaches, and scalability concepts.

Read Robert Kümmerlen’s feature article in DVZ and the interview with Dr. Klaus-Peter Jung, Miebach, in German language in DVZ, No. 23, 2026 below. Link to the article and interview

Source: DVZ

For more information, please see the full results report of the Miebach Study Logistics Outsourcing 2026: Link